Living Plans · Public assumption audit

Checked again 2026-10-15 · next 2026-10-22

Living Plans
ArchiveAudit your strategy

Public assumption audit · Admicom Oyj

Mid-term financial targets to 2028

Admicom's end-2028 targets checked against its 8 October 2026 Q3 report: zero broken, seven unresolved, two hold. ARR was EUR 38.6 million, up 5.3%; current growth guidance is 3–10%. Corrected 2026-10-15: interim shortfalls do not prove endpoint failure. The margin target covers current operations, not Finnish operations. The original intake snapshot is unchanged.

00

Broken

07

Unresolved

02

Holds

Document
Mid-term financial targets to 2028
Organisation
Admicom Oyj
Published
2025-11-25
Audited
2026-10-15
Assumptions
9 extracted, 9 checked
Sources
26 public, 14 dated

Audited from: https://view.news.eu.nasdaq.com/view?id=b1b827ab5afd32ef68c7223af2df07e1a&lang=en&src=micro

§ 01 · How this was made

01

The document, as published

We read only what the organisation published itself, at the address above. Nothing is inferred about its private intentions.

02

Assumptions, in its own words

Each assumption is a belief the plan needs to be true, quoted back to the sentence it came from. Goals and values are not assumptions.

03

Two searches each

One search for what the record says, one aimed at finding the contradiction. The verdict follows the sources, and the sources are listed.

Draft · machine-written, unsigned. No person at Admicom Oyj has been asked to sign any verdict here, and none of it is a decision. In the paid product a named human signs or rejects every break, which is what makes the record defensible. This audit is the method shown in public on a document anyone can check.

§ 02Broken · 0

Nothing in this state.

§ 03Unresolved · 7
  1. Assumption 01Unresolved

    Admicom can achieve organic ARR growth above 15% by the end of 2028.

    Stated in the document as
    “Organic Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) growth exceeds 15%”
    What rests on it
    The EUR 60 million ARR target by end of 2028 requires sustained double-digit growth.

    Verdict · Unresolved · draft, unsigned

    Admicom targets organic ARR growth above 15% by the end of 2028, not throughout every intervening year. The Q3 report published 8 October 2026 records ARR of EUR 38.6 million, up 5.3% year-on-year. Current 2026 ARR growth guidance is 3–10%; 6–12% was the previous guidance. The report defines ARR but does not separately identify organic ARR growth. These figures show a present shortfall, not proof that the end-2028 target has failed. The assumption remains Unresolved.

    Evidence trail · 13 sources

  2. Assumption 02Unresolved

    Admicom's customer base will expand sufficiently to reach EUR 60 million ARR by end of 2028.

    Stated in the document as
    “Admicom's objective is to reach minimum EUR 60 million ARR by end of the strategy period.”
    What rests on it
    The entire mid-term strategy period and its credibility rest on this revenue milestone.

    Verdict · Unresolved · draft, unsigned

    The Q3 report published 8 October 2026 records ARR of EUR 38.6 million at September end. Reaching EUR 60 million requires about 55% further growth. Current 2026 ARR growth guidance is 3–10%, below the eventual organic growth ambition above 15%. Neither current growth nor this guidance establishes whether customer expansion will deliver EUR 60 million by the end of 2028. The assumption remains Unresolved.

    Evidence trail · 10 sources

  3. Assumption 03Unresolved

    Net Revenue Retention from existing customers can exceed 106% by the end of 2028.

    Stated in the document as
    “Net Revenue Retention (NRR) is over 106%”
    What rests on it
    Organic ARR growth target of over 15% depends materially on upsell and expansion within the existing base.

    Verdict · Unresolved · draft, unsigned

    The November 2025 release states an NRR target above 106% to be achieved by the end of 2028. The latest Q3 report discusses customer retention and ARR but does not disclose a numerical NRR outcome. ARR growth is not NRR. The assumption remains Unresolved.

    Evidence trail · 8 sources

  4. Assumption 04Unresolved

    Annual customer churn at Admicom can fall below 6% by the end of 2028.

    Stated in the document as
    “Customer churn is less than 6%”
    What rests on it
    Higher churn can weaken net retention and increase the new sales needed to reach EUR 60 million ARR. Churn alone does not determine either outcome.

    Verdict · Unresolved · draft, unsigned

    The Q3 report says customer churn remained elevated, but does not disclose an annual customer churn rate against the 6% target. The 8 June profit warning attributes almost 15% of total churn to market consolidation. That is a share of churn by cause, not a 15% customer churn rate. The published record does not settle the end-2028 threshold. The assumption remains Unresolved.

    Evidence trail · 12 sources

  5. Assumption 05Unresolved

    Adjusted EBITDA for Admicom's current operations can exceed 40% of revenue by the end of 2028.

    Stated in the document as
    “Adjusted EBITDA for current operations is over 40% of revenue”
    What rests on it
    The profitability target underpins the dividend and capital-return policy and leverage ceiling.

    Verdict · Unresolved · draft, unsigned

    The dated November 2025 strategy release specifies current operations, not Finnish operations, for the adjusted EBITDA target above 40% by end-2028. The Q3 report shows a group adjusted EBITDA margin of 42.0% for July–September and 33.7% for January–September. One quarter exceeds 40%, but the longer period does not. The report does not reconcile group figures to the target scope of current operations. The assumption remains Unresolved.

    Evidence trail · 10 sources

  6. Assumption 07Unresolved

    The Finnish construction and field-service software market is large enough to support Admicom reaching EUR 60 million ARR organically.

    Stated in the document as
    “Admicom's objective is to reach minimum EUR 60 million ARR by end of the strategy period.”
    What rests on it
    Organic growth above 15% per year is only achievable if the addressable market is not already saturated.

    Verdict · Unresolved · draft, unsigned

    The latest report measures Admicom ARR, not the addressable Finnish construction and field-service software market. The November strategy release also identifies international expansion as an execution stream. No retained dated source establishes that the Finnish market alone can support EUR 60 million ARR organically. The assumption remains Unresolved.

    Evidence trail · 8 sources

  7. Assumption 09Unresolved

    Admicom's long-term ambition of EUR 100 million ARR is achievable, even if no target year is set.

    Stated in the document as
    “Reaching EUR 100 million ARR remains to be Admicom's long-term ambition but without a defined year.”
    What rests on it
    Investor confidence in the long-term equity story depends on the EUR 100 million ARR being a credible ceiling.

    Verdict · Unresolved · draft, unsigned

    The November 2025 release states an ambition of EUR 100 million ARR without a target year. The Q3 report records EUR 38.6 million ARR and 5.3% year-on-year growth. An intention and a current figure do not establish achievability over an undefined horizon. The assumption remains Unresolved.

    Evidence trail · 7 sources

§ 04Holds · 2
  1. Assumption 06Holds

    Admicom can keep net debt below 2.5 times adjusted EBITDA at the end of 2028.

    Stated in the document as
    “Net debt in relation to adjusted EBITDA is less than 2.5”
    What rests on it
    The leverage ceiling constrains acquisition spending and determines financial headroom for growth investment.

    Verdict · Holds · draft, unsigned

    Admicom reports net debt of EUR −9.6 million at 30 September 2026 and positive adjusted EBITDA. The company therefore has net cash, placing net debt/adjusted EBITDA below zero and inside the 2.5 ceiling. The latest observation supports Holds; it does not guarantee the position at end-2028.

    Evidence trail · 7 sources

  2. Assumption 08Holds

    Cash flow generation will be sufficient to fund growth investment while also returning approximately 30% of profits to shareholders.

    Stated in the document as
    “When our cash flow and investment needs allow, we aim to allocate approximately 30% of annual profits to returning capital via dividends or share buybacks or combination of those.”
    What rests on it
    The dividend and buyback policy is suspended if cash flow is absorbed by growth spending or debt service.

    Verdict · Holds · draft, unsigned

    January–September operating cash flow was EUR 7.5 million, compared with investing outflows of EUR 1.4 million and shareholder returns of EUR 5.6 million. Cash increased by EUR 0.5 million during the period. This supports present capacity to fund investment and shareholder returns together. The policy aims for approximately 30% of annual profits when cash flow and investment needs allow; it is not a payout floor. Holds does not confirm an exact annual payout ratio or future funding sufficiency.

    Evidence trail · 9 sources

§ 05Under Watch · 4 cycles

This audit is not finished. It is checked again every week.

An audit is true on the day it is run. Every cycle rebuilds Admicom Oyj's own list of published reporting, weighs each assumption against it again, and records the verdict with a date. A verdict that moves is stated below, with the state it moved from.

The record

Cycle 2026-10-15 · latest

9 checked · 2 hold · 0 broken · 7 unresolved

1 verdict moved

Cycle 2026-10-08

9 checked · 2 hold · 1 broken · 6 unresolved

no verdict moved

Cycle 2026-09-14

9 checked · 2 hold · 1 broken · 6 unresolved

1 verdict moved

Cycle 2026-09-07

9 checked · 2 hold · 2 broken · 5 unresolved

no verdict moved

What moved in cycle 2026-10-15

  • 01

    was Broken · now

    Unresolved

    Admicom can achieve organic ARR growth above 15% by the end of 2028.

    Admicom targets organic ARR growth above 15% by the end of 2028, not throughout every intervening year. The Q3 report published 8 October 2026 records ARR of EUR 38.6 million, up 5.3% year-on-year. Current 2026 ARR growth guidance is 3–10%; 6–12% was the previous guidance. The report defines ARR but does not separately identify organic ARR growth. These figures show a present shortfall, not proof that the end-2028 target has failed. The assumption remains Unresolved.

What cycle 2026-10-15 read

  • 01

    Context

    Published 2025-11-25

    The November strategy release sets these targets for end-2028. Its adjusted EBITDA target covers current operations. Shareholder returns of approximately 30% are conditional on cash flow and investment needs.

    Admicom strategy targets and dividend policy 2025-11-25

  • 01

    Context

    Published 2026-10-08

    Admicom targets organic ARR growth above 15% by the end of 2028, not throughout every intervening year. The Q3 report published 8 October 2026 records ARR of EUR 38.6 million, up 5.3% year-on-year. Current 2026 ARR growth guidance is 3–10%; 6–12% was the previous guidance. The report defines ARR but does not separately identify organic ARR growth. These figures show a present shortfall, not proof that the end-2028 target has failed. The assumption remains Unresolved.

    Admicom Q3 report and strategy target comparison

  • 02

    Context

    Published 2026-10-08

    The Q3 report published 8 October 2026 records ARR of EUR 38.6 million at September end. Reaching EUR 60 million requires about 55% further growth. Current 2026 ARR growth guidance is 3–10%, below the eventual organic growth ambition above 15%. Neither current growth nor this guidance establishes whether customer expansion will deliver EUR 60 million by the end of 2028. The assumption remains Unresolved.

    Admicom Q3 report and strategy target comparison

  • 03

    Context

    Published 2026-10-08

    The November 2025 release states an NRR target above 106% to be achieved by the end of 2028. The latest Q3 report discusses customer retention and ARR but does not disclose a numerical NRR outcome. ARR growth is not NRR. The assumption remains Unresolved.

    Admicom Q3 report and strategy target comparison

  • 03

    Context

    Published 2025-11-25

    The November strategy release sets these targets for end-2028. Its adjusted EBITDA target covers current operations. Shareholder returns of approximately 30% are conditional on cash flow and investment needs.

    Admicom strategy targets and dividend policy 2025-11-25

  • 04

    Context

    Published 2025-11-25

    The November strategy release sets these targets for end-2028. Its adjusted EBITDA target covers current operations. Shareholder returns of approximately 30% are conditional on cash flow and investment needs.

    Admicom strategy targets and dividend policy 2025-11-25

§ 06 · One ask

Next week's audit, by email, the day it is published.

One document a week, its assumptions, the verdicts and the sources. Nothing else is ever sent to this list.

One audit a week. One link to leave, one click. No other mail.

§ 07Your own strategy

The uncomfortable version of this page, about your plan.

Send the strategy you already have. The register of the assumptions it rests on comes back free, in your own sentences. The evidence pass is €390, VAT excluded, and every verdict arrives with the dated sources behind it.

Audit your strategyThe archive
Mid-term financial targets to 2028 — an assumption audit — Living Plans