One published strategy a week, and which of its assumptions the record already contradicts.

Metso

Metso's end-2028 targets, one year into 'We go beyond.'

Metso's end-2028 targets checked against Q3 results published 2026-10-22: 0 Broken, 8 Unresolved, 1 Holds. Group margin was 16.8%; sales grew 3%. Interim shortfalls do not prove the future targets failed. Current leverage and aftermarket growth do not settle future funding or demand. The partly estimated emissions KPI remains distinct from annual market-based and GAS-REC measures.

Published 2026-10-10 · document 2025-09-24 · 9 assumptions checked

Under Watch · checked again 2026-10-22 · 3 cycles

Elisa

Elisa's medium-term targets for 2027, checked against the record so far

On 6 March 2025 Elisa reset its financial targets to run to the end of 2027: revenue and comparable EBITDA growing at more than 4 per cent a year from the 2024 base, capex held at or below 12 per cent of sales, net debt between 1.5 and 2x EBITDA, and an equity ratio above 35 per cent. Two years in, the balance sheet targets hold comfortably — net debt 1.8x, equity ratio 39.1 per cent — but growth is the problem: H1 2026 revenue actually fell 0.8 per cent, guidance for the full year is flat, and the software segment meant to carry the growth story ran at a negative EBITDA margin of 13.3 per cent in Q2.

Published 2026-10-08 · document 2025-03-06 · 8 assumptions checked

UPM

UPM's long-term financial targets, reported through 2025

UPM's targets page carries long-term ROCE targets per business area, a 10% comparable ROE aim, an EBIT-growth target and a net debt/EBITDA policy of about 2x or less — and it self-reports the actuals next to them. Three of the four group measures missed in 2025: comparable EBIT fell 25% to EUR 921m, comparable ROE ran at 6.5% against the 10% aim, and leverage rose to 2.29x and then 2.36x by June 2026. Meanwhile the portfolio the targets describe is being redrawn: Plywood is being demerged into WISA Group (planned 31 October 2026) and Communication Papers is headed into a 50/50 joint venture with Sappi.

Published 2026-10-05 · document 2026-02-04 · 11 assumptions checked

KONE

KONE's mid-term targets, set September 2024

KONE's 2025-2030 strategy (September 2024) set mid-term targets for end-2027: mid-single-digit annual sales growth and a 13-14% adjusted EBIT margin. Growth is running inside the range (H1 2026: +5.0% comparable), but the margin sits below it (11.8% in H1 2026, full-year guidance 12.3-13.0%) and is climbing slowly. Meanwhile the defining strategic event is the planned combination with TKE, which KONE is pursuing alongside the standalone targets.

Published 2026-09-30 · document 2024-09-19 · 13 assumptions checked

Fortum

Fortum's financial targets, set November 2025

Fortum renewed its targets at Investor Day 2025: comparable RONA of 14%, fleet-availability KPIs, a 1.2 GW ready-to-build pipeline by 2028 and a coal exit by the end of 2027. The first reported year already breaks one: nuclear fleet availability ran at 75% against a >90% target, and 2026 guidance has been cut.

Published 2026-09-28 · document 2025-11-25 · 12 assumptions checked

Valmet

A step change in ambition, tested at the half-year: margin and ROCE far from the 2030 marks, and a separation review that puts the structure itself in play

Valmet published new 2030 financial targets on 6 June 2025: 5% organic sales growth over the cycle, a 15% comparable EBITA margin, 20% comparable ROCE and gearing below 50%. Its own reporting — the FY2025 review of 6 February 2026 and the Half Year Financial Review of 24 July 2026 — shows the margin at 10.4% for H1 2026 and comparable ROCE at 13.5%, both far from the 2030 marks, biomaterial services flat at 0% against a targeted 8%, and — the surprise — a Board-initiated strategic review, announced the same day, evaluating a separation of the two segments into standalone listed companies. Three assumptions broken, five unresolved, one holds.

Published 2026-09-26 · document 2025-06-06 · 9 assumptions checked

Wärtsilä Corporation

New targets for the combined Marine and Energy business: growth, margin and a balance sheet with room to spare

Wärtsilä set new financial targets in April 2025: 5% annual organic growth and a 14% operating margin for Marine and Energy combined, gearing below 0.5 and a dividend of at least half of earnings. Its own reporting — the FY2025 bulletin of 4 February 2026 and the half-year report of 21 July 2026 — shows organic growth of 15% in 2025 and 6% in H1 2026, a comparable operating margin that touched 14.0% in Q2 2026, gearing at -0.68 and a 2025 payout of 99.7%. Seven assumptions checked, seven hold — the strongest verdict the public audit has produced, with the 14% margin the one to watch at the next report.

Published 2026-09-23 · document 2025-04-01 · 7 assumptions checked

Neste Corporation

Financial targets reset: the performance improvement programme and capital discipline

Neste reset its financial targets in February 2025: EUR 350 million of EBITDA run-rate improvement by the end of 2026, leverage below 40%, a EUR 2.4 billion capex ceiling for 2025–2026. Its own reporting of February 2026 and July 2026 shows the run-rate target already exceeded at EUR 376 million and leverage at 34.3% falling to 29.9% — three assumptions hold, ten are Unresolved, none is broken.

Published 2026-09-21 · document 2025-02-13 · 13 assumptions checked

Kemira Oyj

Updated long-term financial targets: profitable growth and a structurally higher margin

Kemira raised its long-term targets in September 2024: organic growth above 4% a year, an operative EBITDA margin of 18–21%, operative ROCE above 16%. Its own half-year report of 17 July 2026 puts the margin at 16.1%, ROCE at 13.5% and organic revenue at minus 2%.

Published 2026-09-19 · document 2024-09-25 · 6 assumptions checked

Tieto (Tietoevry)

Strategy and financial targets 2026-2028

Tieto published its strategy and financial targets for 2026 to 2028: organic revenue growth of over 5% a year in 2027 and 2028, and an adjusted EBITA margin above 16% by 2028. One assumption is already contradicted by the company's own Half-year Report 2026 of 22 July 2026: the margin was 14.8% in the first half, and the full-year guidance of 14.8 to 15.8% leaves more than a percentage point to find in the two years the target allows. Five assumptions hold, among them net debt of EUR 388.8 million at 30 June 2026 against the ceiling of two times EBITDA, and a dividend policy of 60 to 80% of net profit that 2025 met at the top of the range. Five cannot be decided on dated evidence, and the growth target sits among them: organic growth was -4% in the first half of 2026, and no dated source says whether the horizon can close that gap.

Published 2026-09-17 · 11 assumptions checked

Digia Plc

Updated strategy and financial objectives for 2026-2028

Digia published a new strategy on 5 February 2026, with three quantified objectives for 2026 to 2028. Two of them are already contradicted by the company's own half-year report of 6 August 2026. Net sales grew 2.9% in January to June 2026 against a target of more than 10% a year on average, and organic growth in the second quarter was -3.3%. The EBITA margin was 5.8% against a target above 12% by the end of the period, and the same report puts full-year 2025 at 9.8% and 2024 at 10.3%, so the margin is falling while the target it has to reach rises. Four assumptions hold, among them the recurring service base at 49.5% of second-quarter net sales and the international share at 21.4%, up from 14.6% a year earlier. Six cannot be decided on dated evidence, and two of those are claims about market growth: the pages reporting European AI and security market growth state no publication date, so they carry no verdict here.

Published 2026-09-10 · document 2026-02-05 · 12 assumptions checked

Suominen Corporation

Full Potential Program: financial targets to 2028

Suominen's Full Potential Program checked against its 7 August 2026 half-year report: zero broken, eight unresolved, zero hold. Reported EBITDA margin was 1.0%; comparable margin was 3.3%. Corrected 2026-10-15: interim shortfalls do not prove endpoint failure. Debt is disclosed; commercial and procurement effects are not isolated.

Published 2026-09-05 · 8 assumptions checked

Under Watch · checked again 2026-10-15 · 4 cycles

Admicom Oyj

Mid-term financial targets to 2028

Admicom's end-2028 targets checked against its 8 October 2026 Q3 report: zero broken, seven unresolved, two hold. ARR was EUR 38.6 million, up 5.3%; current growth guidance is 3–10%. Corrected 2026-10-15: interim shortfalls do not prove endpoint failure. The margin target covers current operations, not Finnish operations. The original intake snapshot is unchanged.

Published 2026-09-03 · document 2025-11-25 · 9 assumptions checked

Under Watch · checked again 2026-10-15 · 4 cycles

Gofore Plc

Growth strategy 2025 (Capital Markets Day)

Gofore's January 2025 growth strategy checked against its latest official reports: zero broken, eleven unresolved, two hold. H1 2026 adjusted EBITA margin was 7.3%. Corrected 2026-10-16: the 15% target spans the economic cycle, not every quarter. Contracts support DACH market access; aggregate growth does not prove future targets or AI-driven demand. The original intake snapshot is unchanged.

Published 2026-08-30 · document 2025-01-16 · 13 assumptions checked

Under Watch · checked again 2026-10-16 · 3 cycles

Nordea Bank Abp

Our strategy 2026-2030

Nordea's strategy for 2026-2030 states twelve assumptions we can test. Seven hold on the dated public record. Five cannot be decided — among them the promise that AI and modern technology will cut the unit cost of serving customers by 2030: the record so far shows investment and intent, not a measured unit cost. A target four years away is a starting point, not a contradiction.

Published 2026-08-28 · 12 assumptions checked

Under Watch · checked again 2026-10-11 · 3 cycles

Finnish Government

A strong and committed Finland: the Government Programme of 2023

Twelve assumptions carry the economic core of Finland's 2023 government programme. Three years on, the assumption the programme rests on is broken: the gap between revenue and expenditure has not closed, and Finland's debt is still rising. One holds on the dated public record — AI and digitalisation are creating the opportunities the programme promised. Ten cannot be decided either way: what the record holds so far is intention, not result.

Published 2026-08-26 · document 2023-06-20 · 12 assumptions checked

Under Watch · checked again 2026-10-11 · 3 cycles