Living Plans · Public assumption audit

Evidence pass 2026-10-08 · open sources only

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Public assumption audit · Elisa

Elisa's medium-term targets for 2027, checked against the record so far

On 6 March 2025 Elisa reset its financial targets to run to the end of 2027: revenue and comparable EBITDA growing at more than 4 per cent a year from the 2024 base, capex held at or below 12 per cent of sales, net debt between 1.5 and 2x EBITDA, and an equity ratio above 35 per cent. Two years in, the balance sheet targets hold comfortably — net debt 1.8x, equity ratio 39.1 per cent — but growth is the problem: H1 2026 revenue actually fell 0.8 per cent, guidance for the full year is flat, and the software segment meant to carry the growth story ran at a negative EBITDA margin of 13.3 per cent in Q2.

02

Broken

03

Unresolved

03

Holds

Document
Elisa's medium-term targets for 2027, checked against the record so far
Organisation
Elisa
Published
2025-03-06
Audited
2026-10-08
Assumptions
8 extracted, 8 checked
Sources
3 public, 2 dated

Audited from: https://news.cision.com/elisa-oyj/r/elisa-s-medium-term-targets-and-distribution-policy,c4113249

§ 01 · How this was made

01

The document, as published

We read only what the organisation published itself, at the address above. Nothing is inferred about its private intentions.

02

Assumptions, in its own words

Each assumption is a belief the plan needs to be true, quoted back to the sentence it came from. Goals and values are not assumptions.

03

Two searches each

One search for what the record says, one aimed at finding the contradiction. The verdict follows the sources, and the sources are listed.

Draft · machine-written, unsigned. No person at Elisa has been asked to sign any verdict here, and none of it is a decision. In the paid product a named human signs or rejects every break, which is what makes the record defensible. This audit is the method shown in public on a document anyone can check.

§ 02Broken · 2
  1. Assumption 01Broken

    Elisa's revenue will grow at a compound annual rate above 4% from 2024 to 2027.

    Stated in the document as
    “Revenue growth 2024–2027 CAGR >4%”
    What rests on it
    The revenue growth target of >4% CAGR by end-2027.

    Verdict · Broken · draft, unsigned

    Elisa's own half-year report dated 15 July 2026 shows revenue of EUR 1,099m in H1 2026, down 0.8 per cent from H1 2025, and full-year 2026 guidance is flat versus 2025. The assumption asserts revenue CAGR above 4 per cent from 2024 to 2027: from the 2024 base of EUR 2,191m, 2027 revenue would need to exceed roughly EUR 2,465m. With 2025 up only 3.0 per cent and 2026 tracking flat, that would require close to 9 per cent growth in 2027 alone, which the current trajectory makes implausible.

    Evidence trail · 1 source

  2. Assumption 08Broken

    Finnish telecom market conditions will remain stable enough to support sustained revenue growth above 4% per year.

    Stated in the document as
    “Revenue growth 2024–2027 CAGR >4%”
    What rests on it
    The >4% revenue CAGR target, which depends on domestic market conditions.

    Verdict · Broken · draft, unsigned

    Elisa's own half-year report dated 15 July 2026 shows revenue of EUR 1,099m in H1 2026, down 0.8% from EUR 1,108m in H1 2025. Full-year 2026 guidance is revenue at the same level as or slightly higher than 2025, with telecom service revenue growth of only 0–2%. The assumption asserts a revenue CAGR above 4% over 2024–2027; with revenue flat or declining through mid-2026 and full-year guidance well below 4% growth, the trajectory required to achieve that CAGR is not being met and is moving away from the target.

    Evidence trail · 1 source

§ 03Unresolved · 3
  1. Assumption 02Unresolved

    Elisa's EBITDA will grow at a compound annual rate above 4% from 2024 to 2027.

    Stated in the document as
    “EBITDA growth 2024–2027 CAGR >4%”
    What rests on it
    The EBITDA growth target of >4% CAGR by end-2027.

    Verdict · Unresolved · draft, unsigned

    The assumption requires a >4 per cent CAGR in comparable EBITDA from 2024 to 2027. The dated Financial Statements Release (30 January 2026) shows FY2025 comparable EBITDA of EUR 808m versus EUR 783m in 2024, up 3.2 per cent; the dated Half-Year Report (15 July 2026) shows 1H 2026 at EUR 404m, up 1.8 per cent, with full-year 2026 guidance of EUR 815–845m (roughly 1–4.6 per cent growth). Two reported years at or below the required pace leave Elisa needing well above 4 per cent in 2027 to reach the CAGR; that has not yet been reported, so the target is not yet broken, but it is not on track.

    Evidence trail · 2 sources

  2. Assumption 03Unresolved

    Elisa can keep capital expenditure at or below 12% of sales through 2027.

    Stated in the document as
    “CAPEX/Sales Maximum 12 per cent”
    What rests on it
    The CAPEX/Sales ceiling of 12%, which constrains network and expansion spending.

    Verdict · Unresolved · draft, unsigned

    The dated Half-Year Report (15 July 2026) puts capital expenditure at EUR 133m on H1 2026 revenue of EUR 1,099m — 12.1 per cent computed, and 12 per cent in the report's own key-figures table, with Q2 2026 at 13 per cent. The Financial Statements Release (30 January 2026) implies 12.4 per cent for full-year 2025 (EUR 280m on EUR 2,257m). Both reported periods sit at or just above the 12 per cent ceiling, and full-year 2026 guidance repeats 12 per cent of revenue. On the company's own reported basis the ceiling is being met exactly, but there is no margin under it; until a full year lands clearly inside or outside, the target cannot be resolved.

    Evidence trail · 1 source

  3. Assumption 07Unresolved

    The International Software Services segment (Elisa Industriq) will contribute meaningfully to group revenue and EBITDA growth through 2027.

    Stated in the document as
    “Elisa will report International Software Services as a new reporting segment from the Q1 2025 Interim Report onwards.”
    What rests on it
    The >4% CAGR targets for revenue and EBITDA, which rely partly on international software growth.

    Verdict · Unresolved · draft, unsigned

    The assumption asserts that ISS will contribute meaningfully to group revenue and EBITDA growth through 2027, a multi-year forward claim. The dated Half-Year Report (15 July 2026) confirms ISS comparable EBITDA was negative EUR 5m in Q2 2026 at a -13.3 per cent margin and Q2 revenue fell 0.6 per cent (H1: +3.2 per cent) — weak performance. However, the assumption does not assert that ISS is already contributing; it asserts it will do so through 2027. Two quarters of underperformance, with management citing postponed licence agreements from geopolitical uncertainties and a positive order backlog (including MasOrange selecting Elisa Industriq across its combined mobile network), does not establish that the segment will fail to contribute over the remaining period. Management guides 5–10 per cent organic revenue growth for the segment in 2026; the direction of travel is unfavourable but not conclusively so.

    Evidence trail · 1 source

§ 04Holds · 3
  1. Assumption 04Holds

    Elisa's net debt will remain between 1.5 and 2 times EBITDA through 2027.

    Stated in the document as
    “Net Debt/EBITDA 1.5−2x”
    What rests on it
    The leverage corridor of 1.5–2x Net Debt/EBITDA underpinning the distribution policy.

    Verdict · Holds · draft, unsigned

    Elisa's own Half-Year 2026 report shows Net debt / EBITDA of 1.8x as of Q2 2026, squarely within the 1.5–2.0x corridor. The Financial Statements Release 2025 reported 1.9x, also within range.

    Evidence trail · 3 sources

  2. Assumption 05Holds

    Elisa's equity ratio will remain above 35% through 2027.

    Stated in the document as
    “Equity ratio Above 35 per cent”
    What rests on it
    The equity ratio floor of 35%, which supports the 80–100% profit distribution policy.

    Verdict · Holds · draft, unsigned

    Elisa's own Half-Year Financial Report (Q2 2026) reports an equity ratio of 39.1% as of 30 June 2026, above the 35% floor. The Financial Statements Release 2025 reported 35.9% at year-end 2025, also above the floor.

    Evidence trail · 2 sources

  3. Assumption 06Holds

    Elisa will generate sufficient net profit each year to sustain distributions of 80–100% of the prior year's net profit.

    Stated in the document as
    “Profit distribution is 80−100 per cent of the previous fiscal year's net profit.”
    What rests on it
    The distribution policy committing 80–100% of net profit to shareholders annually.

    Verdict · Holds · draft, unsigned

    The distribution policy requires 80–100 per cent of the previous fiscal year's net profit, plus possible excess capital. The Financial Statements Release (30 January 2026) shows FY2025 profit held at the prior year's level with the best-ever comparable EBITDA of EUR 808m, and the Half-Year Report (15 July 2026) shows H1 2026 net profit of EUR 180m (prior year: 180) with comparable EPS of EUR 1.18 (1.15). The AGM on 1 April 2026 set a maximum dividend of EUR 2.40 per share for FY2025, paid in four instalments — inside the policy. Profit generation is sustaining distributions.

    Evidence trail · 2 sources

§ 05 · One ask

Next week's audit, by email, the day it is published.

One document a week, its assumptions, the verdicts and the sources. Nothing else is ever sent to this list.

One audit a week. One link to leave, one click. No other mail.

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