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Evidence pass 2026-09-30 · open sources only

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Public assumption audit · KONE

KONE's mid-term targets, set September 2024

KONE's 2025-2030 strategy (September 2024) set mid-term targets for end-2027: mid-single-digit annual sales growth and a 13-14% adjusted EBIT margin. Growth is running inside the range (H1 2026: +5.0% comparable), but the margin sits below it (11.8% in H1 2026, full-year guidance 12.3-13.0%) and is climbing slowly. Meanwhile the defining strategic event is the planned combination with TKE, which KONE is pursuing alongside the standalone targets.

00

Broken

05

Unresolved

08

Holds

Document
KONE's mid-term targets, set September 2024
Organisation
KONE
Published
2024-09-19
Audited
2026-09-30
Assumptions
13 extracted, 13 checked
Sources
7 public, 6 dated

Audited from: https://www.kone.com/global/en/investors/kone-as-an-investment.html

§ 01 · How this was made

01

The document, as published

We read only what the organisation published itself, at the address above. Nothing is inferred about its private intentions.

02

Assumptions, in its own words

Each assumption is a belief the plan needs to be true, quoted back to the sentence it came from. Goals and values are not assumptions.

03

Two searches each

One search for what the record says, one aimed at finding the contradiction. The verdict follows the sources, and the sources are listed.

Draft · machine-written, unsigned. No person at KONE has been asked to sign any verdict here, and none of it is a decision. In the paid product a named human signs or rejects every break, which is what makes the record defensible. This audit is the method shown in public on a document anyone can check.

§ 02Broken · 0

Nothing in this state.

§ 03Unresolved · 5
  1. Assumption 01Unresolved

    The global urban population share will rise from roughly 55% today to 68% by 2050.

    Stated in the document as
    “Today, more than 50% of people live in urban areas and by 2050, that number is expected to increase to 68%, adding 2.2 billion people to urban areas.”
    What rests on it
    Demand forecasts for new equipment and modernisation underpinning mid-term growth targets.

    Verdict · Unresolved · draft, unsigned

    The supporting sources are now dated (UN projection 2018, peer-reviewed review 2021), but the assumption covers a trend reaching 2050; nothing published so far can decide it.

    Evidence trail · 2 sources

  2. Assumption 02Unresolved

    KONE's Service business retains approximately 90% of its customers annually.

    Stated in the document as
    “Our Service business provides a stable and recurring revenue base, driven by high requirements for safety and reliability and long customer relationships with approximately 90% annual retention.”
    What rests on it
    Stable recurring revenue base assumption underpinning mid-term 13–14% adjusted EBIT margin target.

    Verdict · Unresolved · draft, unsigned

    The >90% annual retention figure is KONE's own (Annual Review 2024, published 2025-02-12), and the Annual Review 2025 (2026-02-06) shows Service sales still growing at 5.6%. No dated independent source verifies the retention rate itself, so it stays unresolved.

    Evidence trail · 3 sources

  3. Assumption 08Unresolved

    New Building Solutions markets in North America and Europe will grow slightly in 2026.

    Stated in the document as
    “The market is expected to grow slightly in North America and in Europe.”
    What rests on it
    2026 sales growth guidance of 3–6% at comparable exchange rates.

    Verdict · Unresolved · draft, unsigned

    The assumption covers the full year 2026. KONE's own half-year report shows North America grew clearly in January–June 2026, then declined slightly in April–June 2026 alone. Neither half-year figure settles whether North America grows slightly across the full year, and KONE left its full-year market outlook unchanged as at July 2026, still expecting slight growth in both regions.

    Evidence trail · 1 source

  4. Assumption 10Unresolved

    Cities account for approximately 75% of global energy consumption and 80% of man-made greenhouse gas emissions.

    Stated in the document as
    “Globally cities stand for 75% of energy consumption and 80% of manmade greenhouse gas emissions.”
    What rests on it
    Sustainability megatrend rationale for growing demand for energy-efficient building solutions.

    Verdict · Unresolved · draft, unsigned

    The 75%/80% figures are KONE's own framing on its undated investment page. The matching institutional pages (IEA report, UN-Habitat) carry no verifiable publication date, so the claim cannot be placed in time.

    Evidence trail · 1 source

    • Contextdate not stated

      UN-Habitat states urban areas consume 75% of global primary energy, corroborating the assumption's energy consumption figure.

      Urban Energy — UN-Habitat (living page) · https://unhabitat.org/topic/urban-energy

  5. Assumption 13Unresolved

    KONE can achieve mid-single-digit annual sales growth and an adjusted EBIT margin of 13–14% by end of 2027.

    Stated in the document as
    “KONE has set the following mid-term financial targets to be achieved by the end of 2027: Growth: Mid-single-digit annual sales growth; Profitability: Adjusted EBIT margin of 13-14%.”
    What rests on it
    Mid-term financial targets and investor confidence in KONE's growth roadmap.

    Verdict · Unresolved · draft, unsigned

    The half-year 2026 report (published 2026-07-22) shows an adjusted EBIT margin of 11.8% and full-year 2026 guidance of 12.3-13.0%, both below the 13-14% target, while comparable sales growth of 5.0% sits inside the mid-single-digit range. With 18 months to the end-2027 deadline and margins improving year on year, the gap alone does not confirm the target is unreachable.

    Evidence trail · 1 source

§ 04Holds · 8
  1. Assumption 03Holds

    China's New Building Solutions market will continue to decline clearly in 2026.

    Stated in the document as
    “The declining New Building Solutions market in China is a headwind.”
    What rests on it
    2026 sales growth guidance of 3–6% and adjusted EBIT margin range of 12.3–13.0%.

    Verdict · Holds · draft, unsigned

    KONE's own half-year report for January-June 2026 (published 2026-07-22) states China activity declined significantly in H1 2026, as construction remained weak, and reaffirms the unchanged market outlook that China will decline clearly in full-year 2026.

    Evidence trail · 1 source

  2. Assumption 04Holds

    Modernisation markets will grow in all regions in 2026, supported by an ageing equipment base.

    Stated in the document as
    “Modernization markets are expected to grow in all regions supported by an aging equipment base as well as the focus on sustainability and adaptability of buildings.”
    What rests on it
    Modernisation contribution to 2026 sales growth and EBIT margin expansion.

    Verdict · Holds · draft, unsigned

    KONE's own H1 2026 report states modernisation growth was strong globally in January–June 2026, with double-digit order growth across all regions in Q2 2026. The market outlook for 2026 is explicitly unchanged: modernisation markets expected to grow in all regions supported by an ageing equipment base.

    Evidence trail · 1 source

  3. Assumption 05Holds

    Foreign exchange rate movements will have only a limited impact on KONE's adjusted EBIT margin in 2026.

    Stated in the document as
    “Assuming that foreign exchange rates remain at the July 2026 level, the impact of foreign exchange rates on the adjusted EBIT margin would be limited.”
    What rests on it
    2026 adjusted EBIT margin guidance range of 12.3–13.0%.

    Verdict · Holds · draft, unsigned

    KONE's own half-year report dated 22 July 2026 states explicitly that, assuming FX rates remain at July 2026 levels, the impact on adjusted EBIT margin would be limited, and reaffirms the 12.3–13.0% guidance range unchanged.

    Evidence trail · 1 source

  4. Assumption 06Holds

    Service markets will grow clearly in Asia-Pacific, Middle East and Africa in 2026.

    Stated in the document as
    “Service markets are expected to grow clearly in Asia-Pacific, Middle East and Africa and grow slightly in other regions.”
    What rests on it
    Service-led sales growth contribution to 2026 guidance and EBIT margin expansion.

    Verdict · Holds · draft, unsigned

    KONE's own half-year report for January–June 2026 states the service market developed positively with growth across all regions, and reaffirms the unchanged 2026 market outlook that service markets will grow clearly in Asia-Pacific, Middle East and Africa.

    Evidence trail · 1 source

  5. Assumption 07Holds

    Inflationary pressure on wages will continue to weigh negatively on KONE's profitability in 2026.

    Stated in the document as
    “The challenging New Building Solutions market in China and continued inflationary pressure on wages are expected to impact profitability negatively.”
    What rests on it
    2026 adjusted EBIT margin floor of 12.3% and mid-term 13–14% target by end of 2027.

    Verdict · Holds · draft, unsigned

    KONE's own H1 2026 report explicitly states that continued wage inflation is expected to impact profitability negatively in 2026, while the adjusted EBIT margin of 11.8% for January–June 2026 remains below the full-year floor of 12.3%, consistent with ongoing margin pressure. The BLS Employment Cost Index for June 2026 shows compensation costs still rising at 0.9% for the quarter, confirming wage inflation persists.

    Evidence trail · 2 sources

  6. Assumption 09Holds

    New Building Solutions markets in Asia-Pacific, Middle East and Africa will grow clearly in 2026.

    Stated in the document as
    “In Asia-Pacific, Middle East and Africa, activity is expected to grow clearly.”
    What rests on it
    2026 sales growth guidance of 3–6% at comparable exchange rates.

    Verdict · Holds · draft, unsigned

    KONE's own half-year report for January–June 2026 states that in Asia-Pacific, Middle East and Africa, activity grew significantly, and the unchanged market outlook reaffirms that activity is expected to grow clearly for full-year 2026.

    Evidence trail · 1 source

  7. Assumption 11Holds

    KONE's business model maintains negative working capital across all business lines.

    Stated in the document as
    “KONE's business model is capital light, with negative working capital across all businesses and extensive use of component suppliers to complement our own manufacturing capacity.”
    What rests on it
    Capital-light model and steadily developing dividends for shareholders.

    Verdict · Holds · draft, unsigned

    KONE's own half-year report shows net working capital of EUR -877.0 million at 1–6/2026, and the Annual Review 2025 shows EUR -797.6 million at 1–12/2025 and EUR -827.2 million at 1–12/2024. All reported periods show negative net working capital.

    Evidence trail · 2 sources

  8. Assumption 12Holds

    Requirements for smart, energy-efficient and sustainable building solutions are increasing globally.

    Stated in the document as
    “Requirements for smart and energy-efficient solutions, healthy and sustainable materials and overall, green and sustainable buildings are increasing.”
    What rests on it
    Growth opportunities in sustainable solutions cited as a key megatrend driver for the industry.

    Verdict · Holds · draft, unsigned

    KONE's own H1 2026 report states modernisation growth was strong globally, supported by demand for improved energy efficiency, and that sustainability focus drives modernisation markets in all regions. The EU's revised Energy Performance of Buildings Directive mandates renovation of the worst-performing buildings by 2030 and 2033, reinforcing regulatory demand. US federal rollbacks are context for one jurisdiction and do not reverse the global trend evidenced by KONE's own reported order growth and market commentary.

    Evidence trail · 1 source

§ 05 · One ask

Next week's audit, by email, the day it is published.

One document a week, its assumptions, the verdicts and the sources. Nothing else is ever sent to this list.

One audit a week. One link to leave, one click. No other mail.

§ 06Your own strategy

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Send the strategy you already have. The register of the assumptions it rests on comes back free, in your own sentences. The evidence pass is €390, VAT excluded, and every verdict arrives with the dated sources behind it.

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KONE's mid-term targets, set September 2024 — an assumption audit — Living Plans