Living Plans · Public assumption audit

Evidence pass 2026-09-17 · open sources only

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Public assumption audit · Tieto (Tietoevry)

Strategy and financial targets 2026-2028

Tieto published its strategy and financial targets for 2026 to 2028: organic revenue growth of over 5% a year in 2027 and 2028, and an adjusted EBITA margin above 16% by 2028. One assumption is already contradicted by the company's own Half-year Report 2026 of 22 July 2026: the margin was 14.8% in the first half, and the full-year guidance of 14.8 to 15.8% leaves more than a percentage point to find in the two years the target allows. Five assumptions hold, among them net debt of EUR 388.8 million at 30 June 2026 against the ceiling of two times EBITDA, and a dividend policy of 60 to 80% of net profit that 2025 met at the top of the range. Five cannot be decided on dated evidence, and the growth target sits among them: organic growth was -4% in the first half of 2026, and no dated source says whether the horizon can close that gap.

01

Broken

05

Unresolved

05

Holds

Document
Strategy and financial targets 2026-2028
Organisation
Tieto (Tietoevry)
Audited
2026-09-17
Assumptions
11 extracted, 11 checked
Sources
29 public, 14 dated

Audited from: https://www.tietoevry.com/en/investor-relations/investing-in-tietoevry/financial-targets/

§ 01 · How this was made

01

The document, as published

We read only what the organisation published itself, at the address above. Nothing is inferred about its private intentions.

02

Assumptions, in its own words

Each assumption is a belief the plan needs to be true, quoted back to the sentence it came from. Goals and values are not assumptions.

03

Two searches each

One search for what the record says, one aimed at finding the contradiction. The verdict follows the sources, and the sources are listed.

Draft · machine-written, unsigned. No person at Tieto (Tietoevry) has been asked to sign any verdict here, and none of it is a decision. In the paid product a named human signs or rejects every break, which is what makes the record defensible. This audit is the method shown in public on a document anyone can check.

§ 02Broken · 1
  1. Assumption 02Broken

    Tietoevry's cost optimisation programme will deliver sufficient savings to raise adjusted EBITA margin above 16% by 2028.

    Stated in the document as
    “Adjusted2) operating margin (EBITA) of over 16% by 2028”
    What rests on it
    The 16% adjusted EBITA margin target by 2028 is not met.

    Verdict · Broken · draft, unsigned

    Tieto's own Half-year Report 2026, published 22 July 2026, reports adjusted EBITA margin of 14.8% for the first half of 2026 and guides the full-year 2026 margin at 14.8–15.8%. The assumption requires adjusted EBITA margin to exceed 16% by 2028. With the latest reported margin at 14.8% and the full-year 2026 ceiling guided at 15.8%, reaching 16% by 2028 would require sustained improvement of more than 1 percentage point beyond the current trajectory in two years, which the reported figures do not support.

    Evidence trail · 7 sources

§ 03Unresolved · 5
  1. Assumption 01Unresolved

    The European software and technology consulting market will grow fast enough to support over 5% annual revenue CAGR in 2027–2028.

    Stated in the document as
    “Annual revenue growth1) of over 5% (CAGR) in 2027–2028”
    What rests on it
    The 5% CAGR revenue growth target for 2027–2028 becomes unachievable.

    Verdict · Unresolved · draft, unsigned

    The assumption asserts that the European software and technology consulting market will grow fast enough to support over 5% annual revenue CAGR in 2027–2028. Tieto's Half-year Report 2026 reports Tieto's own organic revenue declining at -4% in H1 2026, which is the company's current performance, not a measure of European market growth rates in 2027–2028. No dated source reports a European software and technology consulting market growth rate for 2027–2028 against which the assumption can be tested.

    Evidence trail · 4 sources

  2. Assumption 03Unresolved

    Headwinds in Tieto Banktech and Tieto Caretech are temporary and will not persist beyond 2026.

    Stated in the document as
    “While growth is expected to remain flat, or slightly negative, impacted by headwinds in Tieto Banktech and Tieto Caretech, profitability will improve, driven by the ongoing cost optimization programme and ending of the negative impact of IFRS 5 -related cost burden.”
    What rests on it
    The assumption that growth resumes at over 5% CAGR from 2027 onwards is undermined.

    Verdict · Unresolved · draft, unsigned

    The assumption asserts that Banktech and Caretech headwinds will not persist beyond 2026. The H1 2026 report confirms headwinds were still present in Q2 2026 and expected to 'gradually subside' towards year-end, but does not report whether they persisted into or beyond the end of 2026. No dated source covers H2 2026 performance for these two businesses, so the question of whether the headwinds cleared within the year remains outside the available record.

    Evidence trail · 5 sources

  3. Assumption 05Unresolved

    Tietoevry holds a strong enough competitive position in Nordic markets to sustain market leadership through 2028.

    Stated in the document as
    “Tieto aims to strengthen its market leadership in the company's core Nordic markets while driving selective international expansion with selected software products.”
    What rests on it
    The selective expansion strategy depends on a secure Nordic revenue base to fund international growth.

    Verdict · Unresolved · draft, unsigned

    What the sources report is Tieto's own revenue and growth figures, with no comparison against Nordic peers or market-share data. The assumption asserts competitive leadership relative to others; the record contains only the organisation's own declining revenue, which is intent-neutral on relative position.

    Evidence trail · 4 sources

  4. Assumption 09Unresolved

    Shifting from a product-driven to a customer-centric operating model will not materially disrupt existing customer relationships or revenue during the transition.

    Stated in the document as
    “From product-driven to customer-centricity”
    What rests on it
    Revenue growth targets and margin improvement depend on retaining customers through the operating model change.

    Verdict · Unresolved · draft, unsigned

    What the sources report is intent and transition context: a 2024 operating model renewal announcement and a 2026 CEO description of the year as one of transition. Neither reports a customer retention outcome, churn figure, or revenue movement attributable to the model change itself.

    Evidence trail · 4 sources

  5. Assumption 10Unresolved

    Revenue growth in 2027–2028 will be achieved mainly through organic means rather than acquisitions.

    Stated in the document as
    “Mainly organic, adjusted for currency effects”
    What rests on it
    The 5% CAGR target is stated as mainly organic; reliance on acquisitions would change the capital allocation and leverage picture.

    Verdict · Unresolved · draft, unsigned

    What the sources contain is stated intent: a target of over 5% CAGR for 2027–2028 and a strategy announcement. No dated source reports an outcome or figure showing whether growth in 2027–2028 was achieved organically or through acquisitions. The result is silence on the outcome, not evidence bearing on it.

    Evidence trail · 6 sources

§ 04Holds · 5
  1. Assumption 04Holds

    The negative IFRS 5 cost burden affecting 2026 results will end within the 2026 financial year.

    Stated in the document as
    “profitability will improve, driven by the ongoing cost optimization programme and ending of the negative impact of IFRS 5 -related cost burden.”
    What rests on it
    The profitability improvement expected in 2026 and the path to 16% EBITA by 2028 are delayed.

    Verdict · Holds · draft, unsigned

    The Half-year Report 2026 shows adjusted EBITA of 14.9% in Q2 2026 and 14.8% for H1 2026, with non-allocated costs falling to -5.1m from -12.3m in Q2 2025, consistent with the IFRS 5 burden ending after the Tech Services divestment closed 2 September 2025.

    Evidence trail · 5 sources

  2. Assumption 06Holds

    Selected Tietoevry software products are sufficiently differentiated to win customers in broader European markets beyond the Nordics.

    Stated in the document as
    “From strong Nordic roots to broader European growth”
    What rests on it
    The selective international expansion priority and the 5% CAGR target both fail if products cannot compete outside the Nordics.

    Verdict · Holds · draft, unsigned

    Tieto's January 2026 acquisition of OpenSpring and GrupoOnetec in Spain directly evidences active European expansion of its software businesses beyond the Nordics. No source reports a failed competitive bid or market rejection outside the Nordics.

    Evidence trail · 6 sources

  3. Assumption 07Holds

    Net debt relative to EBITDA will remain below 2x throughout the 2026–2028 period.

    Stated in the document as
    “Net debt/EBITDA below 2”
    What rests on it
    The capital allocation policy, including dividends and share buybacks, becomes unsustainable if leverage rises above 2x.

    Verdict · Holds · draft, unsigned

    At 30 June 2026, interest-bearing net debt was EUR 388.8 million. Annualised H1 2026 adjusted EBITA of ~EUR 259 million implies a net debt/EBITA ratio of approximately 1.5x; net debt/EBITDA is lower still, comfortably below 2x.

    Evidence trail · 4 sources

  4. Assumption 08Holds

    Tietoevry will generate sufficient net profit to sustain a dividend payout of 60–80% of net profit through 2028.

    Stated in the document as
    “Dividend representing 60-80% of net profit”
    What rests on it
    The dividend policy and any share buyback commitments are at risk if net profit falls materially.

    Verdict · Holds · draft, unsigned

    The Board proposed a dividend of EUR 0.88 per share representing around 80% of net profit for 2025, confirming the policy was met at the upper end of the 60–80% range. An analyst note flags dividend cuts due to growth investment, but the reported 2025 outcome supports the policy holding.

    Evidence trail · 6 sources

  5. Assumption 11Holds

    Currency movements between Nordic currencies and the euro will not materially erode reported revenue growth over 2027–2028.

    Stated in the document as
    “Mainly organic, adjusted for currency effects”
    What rests on it
    The stated 5% CAGR target is expressed after currency adjustment; adverse currency moves reduce reported growth.

    Verdict · Holds · draft, unsigned

    In H1 2026, foreign exchange rates contributed +2% to Tieto's total growth, meaning Nordic currency moves were additive, not erosive, to reported revenue. The SEK/EUR rate has weakened slightly in 2026 (from ~0.0925 to ~0.0883), but the company's own reported FX line shows a positive contribution.

    Evidence trail · 3 sources

§ 05Under Watch · 0 cycles

This audit is not finished. It is checked again every week.

An audit is true on the day it is run. Every cycle rebuilds Tieto (Tietoevry)'s own list of published reporting, weighs each assumption against it again, and records the verdict with a date. A verdict that moves is stated below, with the state it moved from.

First cycle runs Monday. Until then, the register stands as checked.

§ 06 · One ask

Next week's audit, by email, the day it is published.

One document a week, its assumptions, the verdicts and the sources. Nothing else is ever sent to this list.

One audit a week. One link to leave, one click. No other mail.

§ 07Your own strategy

The uncomfortable version of this page, about your plan.

Send the strategy you already have. The register of the assumptions it rests on comes back free, in your own sentences. The evidence pass is €390, VAT excluded, and every verdict arrives with the dated sources behind it.

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Strategy and financial targets 2026-2028 — an assumption audit — Living Plans