Living Plans · Public assumption audit

Evidence pass 2026-09-24 · open sources only

Living Plans
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Public assumption audit · Wärtsilä Corporation

New targets for the combined Marine and Energy business: growth, margin and a balance sheet with room to spare

Wärtsilä set new financial targets in April 2025: 5% annual organic growth and a 14% operating margin for Marine and Energy combined, gearing below 0.5 and a dividend of at least half of earnings. Its own reporting — the FY2025 bulletin of 4 February 2026 and the half-year report of 21 July 2026 — shows organic growth of 15% in 2025 and 6% in H1 2026, a comparable operating margin that touched 14.0% in Q2 2026, gearing at -0.68 and a 2025 payout of 99.7%. Seven assumptions checked, seven hold — the strongest verdict the public audit has produced, with the 14% margin the one to watch at the next report.

00

Broken

00

Unresolved

07

Holds

Document
New targets for the combined Marine and Energy business: growth, margin and a balance sheet with room to spare
Organisation
Wärtsilä Corporation
Published
2025-04-01
Audited
2026-09-24
Assumptions
7 extracted, 7 checked
Sources
13 public, 6 dated

Audited from: https://www.wartsila.com/investors/financial-information/financial-targets-and-achievements

§ 01 · How this was made

01

The document, as published

We read only what the organisation published itself, at the address above. Nothing is inferred about its private intentions.

02

Assumptions, in its own words

Each assumption is a belief the plan needs to be true, quoted back to the sentence it came from. Goals and values are not assumptions.

03

Two searches each

One search for what the record says, one aimed at finding the contradiction. The verdict follows the sources, and the sources are listed.

Draft · machine-written, unsigned. No person at Wärtsilä Corporation has been asked to sign any verdict here, and none of it is a decision. In the paid product a named human signs or rejects every break, which is what makes the record defensible. This audit is the method shown in public on a document anyone can check.

§ 02Broken · 0

Nothing in this state.

§ 03Unresolved · 0

Nothing in this state.

§ 04Holds · 7
  1. Assumption 01Holds

    Wärtsilä's combined Marine and Energy net sales can grow at 5% per year on an organic basis.

    Stated in the document as
    “5% annual organic growth”
    What rests on it
    The 5% organic growth target for the combined Marine and Energy segment.

    Verdict · Holds · draft, unsigned

    In H1 2026, Marine and Energy combined organic net sales growth was 6% (Jan–Jun 2026). Full-year 2025 organic net sales growth for Marine and Energy combined was reported at a level consistent with strong outperformance of the 5% target, and H1 2026 continues at or above 5% organically.

    Evidence trail · 4 sources

  2. Assumption 02Holds

    Wärtsilä's combined Marine and Energy segment can sustain a 14% operating margin.

    Stated in the document as
    “14% operating margin”
    What rests on it
    The 14% operating margin target for the combined Marine and Energy segment.

    Verdict · Holds · draft, unsigned

    In Q2 2026, the comparable operating result reached exactly 14.0% of net sales, matching the target. For H1 2026, the comparable operating margin was 13.7%, with the trend moving toward the 14% target.

    Evidence trail · 4 sources

  3. Assumption 03Holds

    Wärtsilä's gearing ratio will remain below 0.5 at group level.

    Stated in the document as
    “Gearing below 0.5”
    What rests on it
    The group-level gearing target of below 0.5.

    Verdict · Holds · draft, unsigned

    The Half-year Financial Report January–June 2026 PDF reports gearing of -0.68 for the period 1–6/2026, well below the 0.5 target. The Q1 2026 interim report PDF shows gearing of -0.65 as at end-March 2026; the 2025 full-year figure was -0.70.

    Evidence trail · 4 sources

  4. Assumption 04Holds

    Wärtsilä will generate sufficient earnings to distribute a dividend of at least 50% of earnings per share.

    Stated in the document as
    “Distribute a dividend of at least 50% of earnings”
    What rests on it
    The group dividend policy of distributing at least 50% of earnings.

    Verdict · Holds · draft, unsigned

    For 2025, EPS was EUR 1.06 and dividend per share was EUR 1.06, a payout ratio of 99.7%. For 2024, EPS EUR 0.85 and dividend EUR 0.44 gave 51.6%. H1 2026 EPS of EUR 0.50 is ahead of H1 2025 EUR 0.44, confirming continued earnings growth supporting the policy.

    Evidence trail · 5 sources

  5. Assumption 05Holds

    The Energy Storage joint venture established in 2026 will remove Energy Storage from Wärtsilä's consolidated reporting segments.

    Stated in the document as
    “On 15 June 2026, Wärtsilä announced the establishment of a joint venture for its Energy Storage business, and in the second quarter of 2026 Wärtsilä Energy Storage will cease to be a separate reporting segment.”
    What rests on it
    Suspension of Energy Storage financial targets and demand guidance from Q2 2026.

    Verdict · Holds · draft, unsigned

    The Half-year Financial Report January–June 2026 states explicitly that Energy Storage was classified as assets held for sale and discontinued operations in June 2026 and discontinued as a reportable segment, with comparative 2025 and H1 2026 figures restated accordingly. The Q1 2026 interim report still carried Energy Storage as a separate reporting segment with its own outlook, confirming the change occurred in Q2 2026 as stated.

    Evidence trail · 4 sources

  6. Assumption 06Holds

    Marine vessel demand will grow sufficiently to support organic revenue growth in Wärtsilä's Marine segment.

    Stated in the document as
    “5% annual organic growth”
    What rests on it
    The 5% organic growth target depends on sustained end-market demand in marine.

    Verdict · Holds · draft, unsigned

    In H1 2026, Marine and Energy combined net sales grew organically by 6%, and Q2 2026 Marine order intake reached a record high. Wärtsilä's own H1 2026 report confirms organic net sales growth of 5% total and 6% for Marine and Energy combined, consistent with the 5% annual organic growth target.

    Evidence trail · 2 sources

  7. Assumption 07Holds

    Energy market demand for Wärtsilä's power plant and services offerings will grow at a rate consistent with 5% organic revenue growth.

    Stated in the document as
    “5% annual organic growth”
    What rests on it
    The 5% organic growth target depends on sustained end-market demand in energy.

    Verdict · Holds · draft, unsigned

    The H1 2026 report shows total organic net sales growth of 5% in both Q2 2026 and January–June 2026, with Energy demand described as at record levels and outlook for the next 12 months remaining strong. The 2025 full-year bulletin confirms organic order intake growth of 6%, consistent with the 5% target.

    Evidence trail · 2 sources

§ 05 · One ask

Next week's audit, by email, the day it is published.

One document a week, its assumptions, the verdicts and the sources. Nothing else is ever sent to this list.

One audit a week. One link to leave, one click. No other mail.

§ 06Your own strategy

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Send the strategy you already have. The register of the assumptions it rests on comes back free, in your own sentences. The evidence pass is €390, VAT excluded, and every verdict arrives with the dated sources behind it.

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